Systems
An open midnight-blue forecasting ledger with ivory probability markers and a brass calibration cursor.

Artemis · Notion instrument

The Forecaster's Ledger

Record a forecast. Resolve the outcome. Measure the error.

Method
Brier scoring
Preview
playable
Standing
in development
Offer
not offered

Playable method

Score one forecast.

Set a confidence, then mark the outcome.

70%
Outcome
Brier score—

No outcome, no score. Missing is never zero.

Calibration boundaryNot a profile

One score is not a calibration profile or a rule for future estimates.

Without JavaScript: Brier = (confidence ÷ 100 − outcome)2; outcome is 1 when the event occurred and 0 when it did not. Pending or void outcomes remain blank.

MethodRecord · resolve · score
  1. 01

    Record a probability for a falsifiable event.

  2. 02

    Resolve it only when the outcome exists.

  3. 03

    Use the Brier score to measure this prediction’s error.

StandingPublic inspection · In development · Not offered

The public Notion build is open for inspection. Duplication, delivery, compatibility, and support remain unverified.

Inspect in Notion