Working instrument · in development

The Forecaster's Ledger

Measure where confidence meets reality, one resolved prediction at a time.

  • Public
  • In development
  • Not offered
  • Delivery unverified
  • Public copy supported
Try the scoring method

Public access is an inspection surface, not an offer. No price, released version, verified duplication path, delivery entitlement, or support promise is authorized.

Public evidence boundary. The linked Notion block copy passed the bounded configured-pattern audit. That is not content approval, and it does not establish an offer, released version, delivery, duplication, compatibility, formula behavior, or performance.

Inspect public Notion evidence
A midnight-blue physical ledger with paired probability rails, ivory markers, and a brass calibration cursor.
Object study L-01 · symbolic instrument, not a rendering of the seed rows

Bounded demonstration

Resolve one forecast.

Set the confidence you would have recorded, then reveal what happened. The score remains unavailable until the outcome exists.

70%
Outcome
Brier score—

Unresolved is missing, not zero. No score is manufactured.

Calibration boundaryProfile unavailable

One resolved forecast produces one score. It cannot establish your reliability curve, uncertainty, discrimination, or a numerical rule for future estimates.

Interactive controls need JavaScript; the complete rule does not. After resolution, Brier = (confidence ÷ 100 − outcome)2, where outcome is 1 when the event occurred and 0 when it did not. Pending or void outcomes remain blank.

Disclosed seed demonstration

What ×0.72 actually says.

Historical sample · not an adjustment rule

The retained build record declares 17 authored example predictions: 15 resolved and 2 pending. On the resolved examples, mean stated confidence is 74% and the declared hit rate is 53%. Dividing 0.53 by 0.74 yields 0.716…, displayed as ×0.72.

That ratio is historical evidence only. It is not field performance, buyer evidence, a guarantee, or an adjustment rule, and it must not be applied to this or any future forecast.

Resolved seed rows
15
Mean stated confidence
74%
Declared seed hit rate
53%
Descriptive ratio
×0.72

Observed build surface

What can be inspected now.

  1. 01

    The Forecaster's Ledger page

    observed get

    Active public Notion page under The Collection, with retained cover and icon.

  2. 02

    Predictions database

    observed get

    Active database with the retained confidence, outcome, Brier, band, domain, surprise, and scoring formulas.

  3. 03

    Calibration by domain database

    observed get

    Active reciprocal relation with retained rollups and correction, overconfidence, reads, and verdict formulas.

  4. 04

    17 prediction rows and 7 domain rows

    declared

    Declared build counts; live enumeration is unavailable under the GET-only authority policy.

  5. 05

    Views, reminder automation, and clean duplicate

    unverified

    Notion's 2026-03-11 Views API can read view configuration. Current Artemis receipts inspect neither views nor automations, and no clean-workspace duplication evidence has been retained.